经济融合 Current Economic Issues ECON1016

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经济融合 Current Economic Issues ECON1016


As part of this relatively new line of enquiry, a recent study by Guitierrez et al. (2007) attempts to supplement the analysis of labour intensity and sectoral growth patterns with a more nuanced assessment of how demographic shifts in general, and labour supply and labour mobility in particular, may be important in understanding household poverty changes in a society. The authors therefore, in addition to estimating how sectoral productivity and employment growth may impact on poverty shifts across countries, also include two additional labour supply variables: the share of population of working age who report being employed $(e)$ and the ratio of the working age population to the total population $(a)$, which the authors see as a proxy for the dependency ratio (Guitierrez et al., 2007). Hence, their modelling strategy revolves around the following conception, linking labour market activity to welfare outcomes:
$$
\frac{\Delta P}{P}=\beta_{0}+\beta_{1} \bar{e}{i j}+\beta{2} \bar{w}{i j}+\beta{3} \bar{a}_{i}+\epsilon
$$





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ECON1016 COURSE NOTES :

However, it is entirely possible to utilize the architecture of the GIC curve approach to glean a more accurate representation of how the labour market, through employment creation, may (or may not) have generated pro-poor growth within an economy. If one thus utilizes the functional form of the GIC curve, which is represented as (Ravallion, 2004), then:
$$
g_{\mathrm{t}}(p) \equiv \frac{d \log y_{t}(p)}{d t} \text { for } 0 \leq p \leq 1
$$
where the growth rate $g$ of each percentile $p$ in the distribution is traced out across the variable under consideration, $y$. It is therefore easy to see how distinct and relevant labour market categories can be supplanted onto the GIC approach. In effect, we would treat the distribution $y$ as being represented by our labour market category of interest. In so doing, we are immediately able to interrogate and understand the role of the labour market, and labour market returns in particular, in the growth process.