概率学代写Probability|MATH1705 University of Plymouth Assignment

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Assignment-daixieTM为您提供普利茅斯大学University of Plymouth MATH 1705 Probability概率学代写代考辅导服务!

Instructions:

Randomness and uncertainty are inherent in many aspects of our lives, and it is becoming increasingly important to have a solid understanding of these concepts. Mathematics provides a framework for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, and random variables are a fundamental tool in this framework.

A random variable is a mathematical object that takes on different values with a certain probability. For example, if we roll a fair six-sided die, the outcome is a random variable that can take on values from 1 to 6 with equal probability.

There are many different types of random variables, each with their own probability distribution. Some common distributions include the uniform distribution (where each outcome has equal probability), the normal distribution (also known as the bell curve), and the binomial distribution (which models the probability of a certain number of successes in a fixed number of trials).

Once we have a random variable, we can use mathematical tools to analyze its behavior. The expected value of a random variable is the average value we would expect to get if we were to repeat the experiment many times. The variance measures how spread out the values of the random variable are, and the correlation measures how two random variables are related to each other.

Understanding these concepts and tools is important in many fields, including finance, engineering, and data science. By developing a solid understanding of chance and randomness in a mathematical framework, we can make better decisions and predictions in our daily lives and in the modern workplace.

概率学代写Probability|MATH1705 University of Plymouth Assignment

问题 1.

Consider a sequence of independent tosses of a coin that is biased so that it comes up heads with probability $3 / 4$ and tails with probability $1 / 4$. Let $X_i$ be 1 if the $i$ th toss comes up heads and 0 otherwise.
(a) Compute $E\left[X_1\right]$ and $\operatorname{Var}\left[X_1\right]$.

证明 .

ANSWER: $E\left[X_1\right]=3 / 4$ and
$$
\begin{aligned}
& E\left[X_1^2\right]=3 / 4 \text { so } \
& \quad \operatorname{Var}\left[X_1\right]=E\left[X^2\right]-E[X]^2=(3 / 4)-(3 / 4)^2=(3 / 4)(1 / 4)=3 / 16
\end{aligned}
$$

问题 2.

(b) Compute $\operatorname{Var}\left[X_1+2 X_2+3 X_3+4 X_4\right]$.

证明 .

ANSWER: Using previous problem, additivity of variance for independent random variables, and general fact that $\operatorname{Var}[a Y]=a^2 \operatorname{Var}[Y]$, we find that
$$
\operatorname{Var}\left[X_1+2 X_2+3 X_3+4 X_4\right]=(3 / 16)(1+4+9+16)=90 / 16=45 / 8
$$

问题 3.

(c) Let $Y$ be the number of heads in the first 4800 tosses of the biased coin, i.e.,
$$
Y=\sum_{i=1}^{4800} X_i .
$$
Use a normal random variable to approximate the probability that $Y \geq 3690$. You may use the function $\Phi(a)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi}} \int_{-\infty}^a e^{-x^2 / 2} d x$ in your answer.

证明 .

ANSWER: $Y$ has expectation $4800 E\left[X_1\right]=3600$. It has variance $4800 \operatorname{Var}\left[X_1\right]=900$ and standard deviation 30 . We are are looking for the probability that $Y$ is more than three standard deviations above its mean. This is approximately the probability that standard normal random variable is three standard deviations above its mean, which is $1-\Phi(3)$.

这是一份2023年的普利茅斯大学University of Plymouth MATH 1705概率学代写的成功案例




















概率学代写 Probability|MATH 230 Duke University Assignment

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Assignment-daixieTM为您提供杜克大学Duke UniversityMATH 230 Probability概率学代写代考辅导服务!





Instructions:

Probability models, random variables with discrete and continuous distributions. Independence, joint distributions, conditional distributions. Expectations, functions of random variables, central limit theorem. Prerequisite: Calculus II (Mathematics 22, 112L, 122, or 122L) OR credit for multivariable calculus (Mathematics 202, 212, 219, or 222) OR graduate student standing. Not open to students who have credit for Mathematics 340.

概率学代写 Probability|MATH 230 Duke University Assignment

问题 1.

Seating arrangement and relative height
A total of n people randomly take their seats around a circular table with n chairs. No two
people have the same height. What is the expected number of people who are shorter than
both of their immediate neighbors?

证明 .

Label the seats 1 to $n$ going clockwise around the table. Let $X_i$ be the Bernoulli random variable with value 1 if the person in seat $i$ is shorter than his or her neighbors. Then $X=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$ represents the total number of people who are shorter than both of their neighbors, and
$$
E(X)=E\left(\sum_{i=1}^n X_i\right)=\sum_{i=1}^n E\left(X_i\right)
$$
by linearity of expected value. Recall that this property of expected values holds even when the $X_i$ are dependent, as is the case here!

Among 3 random people the probability that the middle one is the shortest is $1 / 3$. Therefore $X_i \sim \operatorname{Bernoulli}(1 / 3)$, which implies $E\left(X_i\right)=1 / 3$. Therefore the expected number of people shorter than both their neighbors is
$$
E(X)=\sum_{i=1}^n E\left(X_i\right)=\frac{n}{3}
$$

问题 2.

Independence. Three events $A, B$, and $C$ are pairwise independent if each pair is independent. They are mutually independent if they are pairwise independent and in addition
$$
P(A \cap B \cap C)=P(A) P(B) P(C) .
$$

证明 .

We have $P(A)=P(B)=P(C)=1 / 2$. Writing the outcome of die 1 first, we can easily list all outcomes in the following intersections.
$$
\begin{aligned}
& A \cap B={(1,1),(1,3),(1,5),(3,1),(3,3),(3,5),(5,1),(5,3),(5,5)} \
& A \cap C={(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(3,2),(3,4),(3,6),(5,2),(5,4),(5,6)} \
& B \cap C={(2,1),(4,1),(6,1),(2,3),(4,3),(6,3),(2,5),(4,5),(6,5)}
\end{aligned}
$$
By counting we see
$$
P(A \cap B)=\frac{1}{4}=P(A) P(B)
$$
Likewise,
$$
P(A \cap C)=\frac{1}{4}=P(A) P(C) \quad \text { and } \quad P(B \cap C)=\frac{1}{4}=P(B) P(C) .
$$
So, we see that $A, B$, and $C$ are pairwise independent.
However, $A \cap B \cap C=\emptyset$, since if we roll an odd on die 1 and an odd on die 2 , then the sum of the two will be even. So, in this case,
$$
P(A \cap B \cap C)=0 \neq P(A) P(B) P(C),
$$
and we conclude that $A, B$ and $C$ are not mutually independent.

问题 3.

The new normal. Recall that the normal distribution $N\left(\mu, \sigma^2\right)$ has pdf
$$
f(x)=\frac{1}{\sigma \sqrt{2 \pi}} e^{-\frac{(x-\mu)^2}{2 \sigma^2}} .
$$
The standard normal distribution $N(0,1)$ has mean 0 (by symmetry), variance 1 (as we’ll prove next week), and pdf $\phi(z)$ given by setting $\mu=0$ and $\sigma=1$ above. The cdf is denoted $\Phi(z)$ and does not have a nice formula. In this problem, we’ll show that scaling and shifting a normal random variable gives a normal random variable. Suppose $Z \sim N(0,1)$ and $X=a Z+b$.

(a) Compute the mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$ of $X$.
(b) Express the cdf $F_X(x)$ of $X$ in terms of $\Phi$ and then use the chain rule to find the pdf $f_X(x)$ of $X$.
(c) Use (b) to show that $X$ follows the $N\left(b, a^2\right)$ distribution.
(d) Use (a) and (c) to conclude that the $N\left(\mu, \sigma^2\right)$ distribution has mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$.

证明 .


(a) We know that $E(X)=a E(Z)+b=b$ and
$$
\operatorname{Var}(X)=\operatorname{Var}(a Z+b)=a^2 \operatorname{Var}(Z)=a^2 .
$$
(b) Let $x$ be any real number. We will first compute $F_X(x)=P(X \leq x)$. Since $X=a Z+b$, we see that
$$
F_X(x)=P(X \leq x)=P(a Z+b \leq x)=P\left(Z \leq \frac{x-b}{a}\right)=\Phi\left(\frac{x-b}{a}\right) .
$$
So $F_X(x)=\Phi\left(\frac{x-b}{a}\right)$. Differentiating this with respect to $x$, we find
$$
f_X(x)=\frac{1}{a} \Phi^{\prime}\left(\frac{x-b}{a}\right)=\frac{1}{a} \phi\left(\frac{x-b}{a}\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi} a} \mathrm{e}^{-\frac{(x-b)^2}{2 a^2}}
$$
(c) From (b), we see that $f_X(x)$ is the pdf of $N\left(b, a^2\right)$ distribution
(d) From (b) and (c), we see that if $Z$ is standard normal, then $\sigma Z+\mu$ follows a $N\left(\mu, \sigma^2\right)$ distribution. From (a), we know that $E(\sigma Z+\mu)=\mu$ and $\operatorname{Var}(\sigma Z+\mu)=\sigma^2$.

这是一份2023年的杜克大学Duke University MATH 230概率代写的成功案例